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An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity
ArticleAbstract: This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the euro-area output gap by taking advantage of two tyPalabras claves:Euro Area, Okun's law, Output gap, Phillips curve, Unobserved components modelAutores:Manuel González-AstudilloFuentes:scopusA nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth
ArticleAbstract: We propose a model to nowcast the annual growth rate of real GDP for Ecuador, whose economy lacks tiPalabras claves:ECUADOR, Nowcasting model, Secular stagnation, Time-varying coefficientsAutores:Baquero D., Manuel González-AstudilloFuentes:scopusGood policy or good luck? Analyzing the effects of fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks in Ecuador
ArticleAbstract: This paper proposes a framework to estimate the effects of exogenous fiscal policy and oil revenue sPalabras claves:Bayesian estimation, Fiscal multipliers, Fiscal policy, oil revenues, Structural VARAutores:Freddy García-Albán, Manuel González-Astudillo, Vera-Avellán C.Fuentes:googlescopusEstimating the U.S. output gap with state-level data
ArticleAbstract: This paper develops a method to estimate the U.S. output gap by exploiting the cross-sectional variaPalabras claves:Autores:Manuel González-AstudilloFuentes:scopusMeasuring uncertainty: A streamlined application for the Ecuadorian economy
ArticleAbstract: This paper develops a macroeconomic uncertainty index based on the multistage procedure that combinePalabras claves:Density filter, Macroeconomic uncertainty, state-space model, Stochastic volatilityAutores:Avellán G., Manuel González-Astudillo, Salcedo Cruz J.J.Fuentes:scopusIdentifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov-Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interdependence
ArticleAbstract: In this paper, I propose an econometric technique to estimate a Markov-switching Taylor rule subjectPalabras claves:C34, E52, E63, Markov-switching coefficients, monetary–fiscal policy interactions, Zero Lower BoundAutores:Manuel González-AstudilloFuentes:scopusWhen are trend–cycle decompositions of GDP reliable?
ArticleAbstract: In this paper, we examine the results of GDP trend–cycle decompositions from the estimation of bivarPalabras claves:Bayesian estimation, Trend–cycle correlation, Trend–cycle decomposition, Unobserved components modelAutores:Manuel González-Astudillo, Roberts J.M.Fuentes:scopus