Adaption of Hunter’s Method and generation of synthetic series from disaggregation of flow time series, comparative analysis with existing models

Abstract:

Water demand is a non-deterministic variable; current normative deliver different flow 12 rates than might occur. Adaptations have been developed in different countries mainly 13 for Hunter's method. The Hydro-Sanitary Standard'Norma Hidrosanitaria Ecuatoriana'14 (NHE) 2011 in Ecuador proposes a demand calculation through a modification to the 15 Norme Francaise NF P 40-202. This study proposes an adaptation to the Hunter’s Method 16 using a binomial probability function, based on the disaggregation of time series of 17 pressure and flow, during 62 consumption days, in different water meters, in academic 18 facilities in Loja, Ecuador. Flow curves were developed based on consumption units, 19 which gave very assertive values in relation to the maximum recorded flow rates. Also, 20 in order to approach different estimation methods and since water consumption over time 21 follows a Poisson distribution, synthetic series were generated using the Neyman Scott 22 Rectangular Pulse Model (NSRPM), as this is the one that most adheres to the actual user 23 behavior. Maximum flow rate was also determined with Water Demand Calculator 24 (WDC) and NHE 2011 for comparison with NSRP and research results. Current research 25 is an exploratory approach, has a methodological value for subsequent studies. Proposed 26 Hunter's Method adaptation can provide an accurate flow estimation. Flows obtained with 27 NHE 2011 method were closed to observed only in small facilities. NSRPM method 28 showed an exactness high level, with only a 1.1% percentage difference compared to the 29 measured one. 30

Año de publicación:

2021

Keywords:

Fuente:

google