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E-Democracy: Can We Model Adequately the Close National Presidential Elections?

Abstract:

This research shows that the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) can be applied to close presidential elections worldwide to obtain samples of elections whose outcome - -leadership change or leadership continuation - -is assigned quasi-experimentally. It is shown that the number of close presidential elections is sufficiently numerous to fulfil regression discontinuity demands. Furthermore, a robustness checks reveals that the sample indeed behaves quasi-experimentally, as the assignment of electoral outcomes is independent of pre-election characteristics. Using this sample, researchers can estimate the causal effect of leadership changes on the substantive outcome of interest - -for instance, sovereign debt defaults - -without worrying too much for selection effects or omitted variable biases. The study contributes to the modelling of e-Democracy processes, including the elections, the mechanisms and their significance.