Advances in the Subseasonal Pbkp_rediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe

Abstract:

Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human health, economic activities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. It is therefore crucial to anticipate extremes and their impacts to allow for preparedness and emergency measures. There is indeed potential for probabilistic subseasonal pbkp_rediction on time scales of several weeks for many extreme events. Here we provide an overview of subseasonal pbkp_redictability for case studies of some of the most prominent extreme events across the globe using the ECMWF S2S pbkp_rediction system: heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and tropical and extratropical cyclones. The considered heatwaves exhibit pbkp_redictability on time scales of 3-4 weeks, while this time scale is 2-3 weeks for cold spells. Precipitation extremes are the least pbkp_redictable among the considered case studies. Tropical cyclones, on the other hand, can exhibit probabilistic pbkp_redictability on time scales of up to 3 weeks, which in the presented cases was aided by remote precursors such as the Madden-Julian oscillation. For extratropical cyclones, lead times are found to be shorter. These case studies clearly illustrate the potential for event-dependent advance warnings for a wide range of extreme events. The subseasonal pbkp_redictability of extreme events demonstrated here allows for an extension of warning horizons, provides advance information to impact modelers, and informs communities and stakeholders affected by the impacts of extreme weather events.

Año de publicación:

2022

Keywords:

• Flood events
• Severe storms
• Forecast verification/skill
• ensembles
• Probability forecasts/models/distribution
• Madden-Julian oscillation

Fuente:

google

scopus