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Economic cycle and external sector in Ecuador, 2002-2017

Abstract:

It is intended to determine the influence of the external sector (exports, imports, WTI oil prices and real exchange rate) on the cyclical behavior of the Ecuadorian economy, in the period 2002-2017. For this purpose, the Hodrick - Prescott filter is applied to all economic series and its stylized facts are identified in a dynamic analysis, in order to verify the persistence, volatility and co-movements between the variables. Additionally, the correlation between the stylized series is estimated. It concludes the presence of a pro-cyclical behavior of the external sector in the Ecuadorian economy.