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Economic risk assessment of cotopaxi volcano, ecuador, in case of a future lahar emplacement

Abstract:

The Cotopaxi volcano in north-central Ecuador is one of the most dangerous volcanoes of the world due to its ability to generate far-reaching lahars, which are able to destroy infrastructure and endanger a high amount of population living close to the main fluvial drainages of this volcano. An economic evaluation of the infrastructure, which is above or close to the historic lahar deposits, has been undertaken in order to determine the values of direct and indirect damages of a potential future lahar. Such strategic infrastructure includes habituated and constructed areas, highways and hydroelectric plants besides many other structures or properties. Indirect damages include losses in revenues in water, food, energy and gasoline supply among others. The total losses of such damages are approximately 17 billon USD, representing 16.8 % of the Ecuadorian GDP. Simultaneously, the construction of mitigation structures able to retain lahars is calculated to be of about 150 million USD. The calculated benefit–cost ratio (1:114) is significant, entailing a cost reduction in 9912 %, and leads to the conclusion that the construction of mitigation structures is the most optional and justified choice for the authorities in order to protect life and prevent a high loss of strategic infrastructure.