Regresar

All That Glisters Is Not Gold: Sampling-Process Uncertainty in Disease-Vector Surveys with False-Negative and False-Positive Detections

Abstract:

Control agents conducted triplicate vector searches in 414 man-made ecotopes of two rural localities. Ecotope-specific ‘detection histories’ (vectors or their traces detected or not in each individual search) were analyzed using ordinary methods that disregard detection failures and multiple detection-state site-occupancy models that accommodate false-negative and false-positive detections. Mean (±SE) vector-search sensitivity was ∼0.283±0.057. Vector-detection odds increased as bug colonies grew denser, and were lower in houses than in most peridomestic structures, particularly woodpiles. False-positive detections (non-vector fecal streaks misidentified as signs of vector presence) occurred with probability ∼0.011±0.008. The model-averaged estimate of infestation (44.5±6.4%) was ∼2.4–3.9 times higher than naïve indices computed assuming perfect detection after single vector searches (11.4–18.8%); about 106–137 infestation foci went undetected during such standard searches.