Energy Consumption in the Ecuadorian Economy, Empirical Analysis Trough the Method of Vector Autoregressive (VAR), 1973-2006

Abstract:

Several authors have been able to establish the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Empirical evidence shows different effects depending on the size and economic structure of a country to energy ratio, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and employment. Historically the case of Ecuador, the study of energy consumption and economic growth has not been discussed, despite its importance in the generation of development policies. So the idea of analyzing the effects of energy consumption in Ecuador’s economic growth with reference to the period 1978-2009, and also to know which variables determine it. Through a program econometric equation was estimated vector autoregressive model, in order to meet the long-term based on the Johansen’s methodology estimates a vector error correction to analyze and describe the effects on the short term. Presents tools of analysis of these models, impulse response and decomposition of the variables, which extends the study of the trajectory of the variables mentioned. The results of this study show that the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, maintain a direct and positive energy prices. Employment front there is a negative impact. In conclusion to Ecuador, reminiscent of developed countries, energy consumption has a positive effect on economic growth thereof; industrialization generates increased energy while decreasing unskilled jobs, thus the creation of more spaces use of specialized type, at the same time increasing energy consumption, generates increased price of it, or its derivatives.

Año de publicación:

2012

Keywords:

Fuente:

google