Environmental covariate representation of seasonal U.S. tornado frequency

Abstract:

The significant tornado parameter is a widely used meteorological composite index that combines several variables known to favor tornadic supercell thunderstorms. This research examines the spatial relationship between U.S. tornado frequency and the significant tornado parameter (the pbkp_redictor covariate) across four seasons in order to establish a spatial–statistical model that explains significant amounts of variance in tornado occurrence (the pbkp_redictand). U.S. tornadoes are highly dependent on the significant tornado parameter in a climatological sense. The strength of this dependence is seasonal, with greatest dependence found during December–February and least dependence during June–August. Additionally, the strength of this dependence has not changed significantly through the 39-yr study period (1979–2017). Results herein represent an important step forward for the creation of a pbkp_redictive spatial–statistical model to aid in tornado pbkp_rediction at seasonal time scales.

Año de publicación:

2019

Keywords:

Fuente:

scopus