Equatorial climatology study with numerical methods: weather forecasting, validations and atmospheric reconstruction

Abstract:

The present report describes two types of studies about the climate and weather in Ecuador by implementing the following numerical models: Mesoescale Mesoescale Model version 5 (MM5) and Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF) showing its principal characteristics and installation by adjusting to equatorial conditions. These studies correspond to the weather forecasting in Ecuador, using MM5 model in variables like the temperature, wind speed and precipitations. The validation study is done on precipitations forecast of Quito by means of contingency tables, studying the months of august to october, thereby obtaining a POD (Probability of Detection) of 93.5% and a FAR (False Alarm Ratio) of 14%, having demonstrated the unusually dry season that was registered at those dates. Also present the first part of the reconstruction of the equatorial atmosphere using WRF model, showing the study of the …

Año de publicación:

2009

Keywords:

Fuente:

google