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An incremental learning approach to pbkp_rediction models of SEIRD variables in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract:

Several works have proposed pbkp_redictive models of the SEIRD (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Dead) variables to characterize the pandemic of COVID-19. One of the challenges of these models is to be able to follow the dynamics of the disease to make more precise pbkp_redictions. In this paper, we propose an approach based on incremental learning to build pbkp_redictive models of the SEIRD variables for the COVID-19 pandemic. Our incremental learning approach is a dynamic ensemble method based on a bagging scheme that allows the addition of new models or the updating of incremental models. The article proposes an incremental learning architecture composed of two components. The first component carries out an analysis of the interdependencies of the SEIRD variables and the second component is an incremental learning model that builds/updates the pbkp_redictive models. The paper analyses the quality of the pbkp_redictive models of our incremental learning approach using data of the COVID-19 from Colombia, and shows interesting results about the pbkp_redictions of the SEIRD variables. These results are compared with an incremental learning approach based on random forests.