Regresar

An operations-structured model for strategic prediction of airport arrival rate and departure rate futures

Abstract:

Motivated by needs in strategic Air Traffic Flow Management, we propose a model for forecasting airport arrival and departure capacity over a full-day look-ahead horizon. The focus of the modeling effort is on a small set of high-congestion airports, for which we propose a multi-stage prediction model. In this article, a core piece of the model - an operations-driven prediction for airport runway configurations and baseline capacities in terms of weather and operational regressor - is developed. We demonstrate the model's performance through case studies for two high-congestion airports, Chicago O'Hare International Airport (KORD) and Boston Logan International Airport (KBOS).