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Analysis of voltage profile to determine energy demand using Monte Carlo algorithms and Markov Chains (MCMC)

Abstract:

At present, energy distribution companies seek to improve service and implement alternatives to determine the capability of distribution system devices that allow to cover electric demand. This paper proposes a stochastic analysis to manage the demand response energy, depending on the voltage curve profiles established by historical measurements. The proposal is based on the stochastic prediction of energetic demand using Monte Carlo algorithms with Markov Chains (MCMC), from the analysis of the voltage profile as a deterministic variable. The analysis is associated with the prediction of the maximum power required to satisfy the peak demand period in distribution systems with predominance of residential load, also seeking the planning of the networks to increase efficiency, quality and reliability of power supply in peak hours, in order to reduce the contingencies in the operation of distribution networks in periods of peak demand, especially in systems where the residential load is predominant, which has been taking considerable growth, due to the insertion of electric cookers.