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Flexible decision making-based framework for coping with risks existing in transmission expansion plans

Abstract:

Due to the existence of significant uncertainties, currently, the practical efficiency of traditional transmission expansion planning models is limited. This fact is evidenced since planners frequently should make adjustments or additional contingent investments in order to mitigate the negative economic consequences that unexpected events have lead. The key concept of this proposal lies on considering available choices for reacting upon the diverse scenarios which could take place along the planning horizon. Under this perspective, planning for contingencies as well as incorporating technical and managerial embedded options (available in an investment project) must be properly accounted for along the planning process. Until now unexplored flexible decision options (able to improve in practice the expansion decisions), as well as the well-founded technique of strategic flexibility for coping with risks, are joined in a probabilistic approach to create a novel flexible decision making-based transmission expansion framework which is illustrated through a numerical example. ©2008 IEEE.