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Forecasting electrical demand in short term based on markov chains and monte carlo

Abstract:

Forecasting electrical demand is currently a discussion subject, but due to its random and stochastic behavior it is very difficult to do. In the present research, a methodology is proposed to pbkp_redict electricity consumption in the short term using Markov Chains and Monte Carlo, and the results are validated with numerical techniques of curve reconstruction such as least squares and cubic splines, as well as verification of real demand behavior. Finally, the error that the proposed model has is verified against the other alternatives, having it be reduced. As well as, the pbkp_rediction of electricity demand for a period of 7 days.