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Health Impact Analysis of COVID-19 in Ecuadorian Provinces: A Statistical Approach

Abstract:

In this work, we analyze the health impact of COVID-19, focusing on the number of deaths per million inhabitants and the number of cases per million inhabitants in the 24 Ecuadorian provinces. We study this impact by considering the following aspects: the number of hospital beds per 100k inhabitants, number of intensive care units per 100k inhabitants, population density, and coloring of their cities. We use official data published by the Ministry of Public Health of Ecuador until May 28th and June 12th, 2020, and the Ecuadorian Secretariat for Risk Management (SNGRE). To carry out the analysis, we use multivariate statistical techniques: Cluster Analysis and Canonical Biplot. We found that provinces with high population density and a relatively small number of hospital beds and intensive unit care, like Pichincha and Tungurahua, had relatively good management of the pandemic until June 12th, while provinces with more advantages with respect to these variables, Morona Santiago, Galapagos, and Napo, did not show a performance better than other provinces. Finally, we encountered that the coloring system of the provinces alone does not seem to be a determinant measure in the growth rate of deaths and cases. The implemented analysis allows a periodic evaluation of the status of each province and to determine the most vulnerable provinces concerning the studied variables as well as the most affected by the virus.