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Identification and evaluation of epidemic pbkp_rediction and forecasting reporting guidelines: A systematic review and a call for action

Abstract:

Introduction: High quality epidemic forecasting and pbkp_rediction are critical to support response to local, regional and global infectious disease threats. Other fields of biomedical research use consensus reporting guidelines to ensure standardization and quality of research practice among researchers, and to provide a framework for end-users to interpret the validity of study results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether guidelines exist specifically for epidemic forecast and pbkp_rediction publications. Methods: We undertook a formal systematic review to identify and evaluate any published infectious disease epidemic forecasting and pbkp_rediction reporting guidelines. This review leveraged a team of 18 investigators from US Government and academic sectors. Results: A literature database search through May 26, 2019, identified 1467 publications (MEDLINE n = 584, EMBASE n = 883), and a grey-literature review identified a further 407 publications, yielding a total 1777 unique publications. A paired-reviewer system screened in 25 potentially eligible publications, of which two were ultimately deemed eligible. A qualitative review of these two published reporting guidelines indicated that neither were specific for epidemic forecasting and pbkp_rediction, although they described reporting items which may be relevant to epidemic forecasting and pbkp_rediction studies. Conclusions: This systematic review confirms that no specific guidelines have been published to standardize the reporting of epidemic forecasting and pbkp_rediction studies. These findings underscore the need to develop such reporting guidelines in order to improve the transparency, quality and implementation of epidemic forecasting and pbkp_rediction research in operational public health.