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Impact of end-of-century climate change on priority non-timber forest product species across tropical Africa

Abstract:

Plant species providing Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFP) are economically important across Africa. How this heterogeneous and understudied resource will respond to ongoing climate change remains understudied. Here, we modelled the impact of end-of-the-century climate change on the distribution of 40 NTFP plant species distributed across tropical Africa. Occurrence data were extracted from a taxonomically verified database and three different ecological niche modelling algorithms were used. Species distributions were modelled under two end-of-century (2085) climate change models (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two dispersal scenarios (limited and expanded). We show that for the 40 NTFP plant species studied here, different responses are modelled with some species gaining in suitable habitats (47.5%–65% under RCP4.5), whereas others will lose in suitable habitats (35%–52.5% under RCP4.5). Nevertheless, we also show that our results vary between the different methods used, such as modelling algorithms, dispersal scenarios and general circulation models. Overall, our results suggest that the response of NTFP species to climate change depends on their distribution, ecology and dispersal ability.