Regresar

Impacts of COVID-19 on Tourism-related Activities: A Case Study of Ecuador by Scenarios

Abstract:

The health emergency resulting from the SARS-CoV-2 virus is a public health crisis with serious effects on all social dimensions. This chapter has estimated the effects that this pandemic could potentially have on tourism activities in Ecuador. The scenario methodology was the method of choice since it allows analyzing the environment and comparing different internal and external factors, placing them in a future context for the tourism sector. The data were obtained using the following: (1) UNWTO estimates anticipate that the pandemic will cause a decrease in tourist arrivals and income between 250% and 278% across the world; and (2) a simulation of the pandemic’s possible impacts on employment, production and taxes that would cause drops of 50%, 70% and 78% in the demand for accommodation and food and beverage services that represent economic activities that are directly related to tourism. The results confirm that in scenario 1, losses will amount to 1.327 million US dollars; in scenario 2, to 1.600 million USD; while for scenario 3, the country will stop receiving more than 1.700 million USD. Eight sectors of the economy will suffer 95% of the impact on job loss: the food and beverage service stands out from the rest, since 77 out of 10 jobs lost will come from those types of activities. The two other sectors that would suffer significant impacts would be trade and accommodation activities, which account for 8% and 5%, respectively, of the total number of jobs lost.