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Improvement of Flood Extent Representation With Remote Sensing Data and Data Assimilation

Abstract:

Flood simulation and forecast capability have been greatly improved, thanks to the advances in data assimilation (DA). Such an approach combines in situ gauge measurements with numerical hydrodynamic models to correct the hydraulic states and reduce the uncertainties in model parameters. However, these methods depend strongly on the availability and quality of observations, thus necessitating other data sources to improve the flood simulation and forecast performances. Using Sentinel-1 images, a flood extent mapping method was carried out by applying a Random Forest algorithm trained on past flood events using manually delineated flood maps. The study area concerns a 50-km reach of the Garonne Marmandaise catchment. Two recent flood events are simulated in analysis and forecast modes, with a +24-h lead time. This study demonstrates the merits of using synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-derived flood extent maps to validate and improve the forecast results based on hydrodynamic numerical models with Telemac2D-ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Quantitative 1-D and 2-D metrics were computed to assess water-level time-series and flood extents between the simulations and observations. It was shown that the free run experiment without DA underestimates flooding. On the other hand, the validation of DA results with respect to independent SAR-derived flood extent allows to diagnose a model-observation bias that leads to over-flooding. Once this bias is taken into account, DA provides a sequential correction of area-based friction coefficients and inflow discharge, yielding a better flood extent representation. This study paves the way toward a reliable solution for flood forecasting over poorly gauged catchments, thanks to the available remote sensing datasets.