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Market penetration analysis of the use of hydrogen in the road transport sector of the Madrid region, using MARKAL

Abstract:

Nobody can doubt today that hydrogen will, in the not-too-distant future, represent a very significant percentage of the total energy used by the transport sector. This study therefore consists of the modelling and simulation of energy consumption, by type of vehicle and fuel or energetic vector, in the road transport sector of the Madrid Region, during the period 2010-2050, using the MARKAL model. It has been necessary to complete this model by adding numerous specifications in order to determine the features of the Madrid Region, the richest Region in Spain. For the purpose of the study, three growth scenarios, based on short-term energy forecasts made by different official organizations, have been proposed for the energy consumption of the road transport sector in the Region. The results show a profound change in the current situation as there is a significant decrease in the consumption of fossil fuels and an increase in that of alternative non-fossil fuels and hydrogen. The latter, in particular, will rise from 0.1% in the year 2010, to around 50% in the year 2050, which will mean a drastic drop in the sector's CO2 and atmospheric pollutant emissions. © 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy.