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Model parameters and outbreak control for SARS

Abstract:

Control of the 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak was based on rapid diagnosis coupled with effective patient isolation. We used uncertain ty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R O to assess the role that model parameters play in outbreak control. The transmission rate and isolation effectiveness have the largest fractional effect on RO. We estimated the distribution of the reproductive number RO under perfect isolation conditions. The distribution lies in the interquartile range 0.19-1.08, with a median of 0.49. Even though the median of RO is <1, we found that 25% of our RO distribution lies at RO >1, even with perfect isolation. This implies the need to simultaneously apply more than one method of control.