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Modelling the Urban Growth in the Parish of Machachi, Municipality of Mejía and Its Situation in 2030

Abstract:

The uncontrolled urban growth in the parish of Machachi in the Municipality of Mejía, Ecuador, has been influenced by different biophysical and socio-environmental factors, presenting a direct influence on the surrounding parishes of Alóag and Aloasí. An alternative solution is to generate a territorial administration system focused on the areas of urban expansion, applying the Social Tenure Domain Model (STDM) based on the ISO 19152 standard, with the purpose to record of rights, restrictions, and responsibilities at the property level. For this purpose, a multi-temporal analysis of land dynamics in eight different periods from 1990 to 2020 was carried out, obtaining an annual growth of 21.94% in anthropic zones; these results made it possible to model urban growth by 2030 with a new total area of 2,150.52 hectares at a rate of 68 hectares/year, through the EGO Dynamic software. Potential areas of urbanization were obtained considering a minimum affectation to the land and its environment. Finally, the information obtained and collected was integrated into the STDM model, including the relationships among land, people, risk, and land use, resulting in a total of 591 rural properties that will be affected by urban expansion, of which 420 correspond to the neighboring parishes of Alóag and Aloasí, and 171 to Machachi. In this paper, the results of the multi-temporal analysis of land dynamics in eight different periods from 1990 to 2020 and the simulation to 2030 are presented.