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Modelling the effect of temperature changes on plant life-form distribution across a treeline ecotone in the tropical Andes

Abstract:

Background: Classifying species from the high tropical Andes into plant life forms (PLF) can provide a more functional understanding of tropical treeline dynamics. However, little is known about the potential response of PLFs to climate warming. Aims: The objective of this work was to evaluate the response of PLFs to environmental conditions above the upper montane forest in the Venezuelan Andes and forecast their potential distribution under warming scenarios using habitat suitability models. Methods: We classified species into nine PLFs, analysed their current distribution using CCA and non-linear multiple regressions and forecasted their potential distribution under warming scenarios. We used anatomical leaf traits for shrubs and caulescent rosettes to refine their potential responses to climate. Results: Tree cover sharply decreased with increasing elevation, while shrub and caulescent rosette distribution differed depending on their leaf traits. Projections suggested an upslope shift of all PLFs with warming and an increase in tree cover. Conclusions: The analysis of the distribution of PLFs, by linking plant adaptive strategies to topography/climate, allowed projecting changes in vegetation physiognomy in response to warming. Projections of a moderate increase in tree cover in the grassland páramo did not indicate the formation of closed forests above the forest line.