Modelling the responses of Andean and Amazonian plant species to climate change: The effects of georeferencing errors and the importance of data filtering

Abstract:

Aim: Species distribution models are a potentially powerful tool for pbkp_redicting the effects of global change on species distributions and the resulting extinction risks. Distribution models rely on relationships between species occurrences and climate and may thus be highly sensitive to georeferencing errors in collection records. Most errors will not be caught using standard data filters. Here we assess the impacts of georeferencing errors and the importance of improved data filtering for estimates of the elevational distributions, habitat areas and pbkp_redicted relative extinction risks due to climate change of nearly 1000 Neotropical plant species. Location: The Amazon basin and tropical Andes, South America. Methods: We model the elevational distributions, or 'envelopes', of 932 Amazonian and Andean plant species from 35 families after performing standard data filtering, and again using only data that have passed through an additional layer of data filtering. We test for agreement in the elevations recorded with the collection and the elevation inferred from a digital elevation model (DEM) at the collection coordinates. From each dataset we estimate species range areas and extinction risks due to the changes in habitat area caused by a 4.5 °C increase in temperature. Results: Amazonian and Andean plant species have a median elevational range of 717 m. Using only standard data filters inflates range limits by a median of 433 m (55%). This is equivalent to overestimating the temperature tolerances of species by over 3 °C - only slightly less than the entire regional temperature change pbkp_redicted over the next 50-100 years. Georeferencing errors tend to cause overestimates in the amount of climatically suitable habitat available to species and underestimates in species extinction risks due to global warming. Georeferencing error artefacts are sometimes so great that accurately pbkp_redicting whether species habitat areas will decrease or increase under global warming is impossible. The drawback of additional data filtering is large decreases in the number of species modelled, with Andean species being disproportionately eliminated. Main conclusions: Even with rigorous data filters, distribution models will mischaracterize the climatic conditions under which species occur due to errors in the collection data. These errors affect pbkp_redictions of the effects of climate change on species ranges and biodiversity, and are particularly problematic in mountainous areas. Additional data filtering reduces georeferencing errors but eliminates many species due to a lack of sufficient 'clean' data, thereby limiting our ability to pbkp_redict the effects of climate change in many ecologically important and sensitive regions such as the Andes Biodiversity Hotspot. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Año de publicación:

2010

Keywords:

• Global warming
• extinction risk
• Conservation biogeography
• Collection records
• Herbarium data
• Bioclimatic niches
• Climate Change
• Range maps
• Data filters
• Habitat distribution models

Fuente:

scopus