A Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis framework demonstrating the advantages of probabilistic forecasting over deterministic forecasting in terms of flood warning …

Abstract:

Despite the significant progress in probabilistic forecasting science in the last two decades, particularly in the quantification of pbkp_redictive uncertainty (PU), most operational flood early warning systems (FEWSs) continue to be based on deterministic forecasts. Thereupon, additional work is needed to demonstrate the advantages of using PU over deterministic forecasting to enhance the uptake of probabilistic forecasts in flood warning decision-making. In this paper, a Monte-Carlo (MC)-based sensitivity analysis is done to explore how the outcomes of flood peak water level-based deterministic and -probabilistic warning strategies behave when factors controlling the forecast quality are perturbed. The flood warning reliability is evaluated through the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) based on two criteria: a flooding threshold-based criterion (FTC), and a new floodplain property-based criterion …

Año de publicación:

2023

Keywords:

Fuente:

google