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New Extensions of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Sequential Multistage Decision-Making Problems: Application in Project Management

Abstract:

From a systematic review on the use of FCMs and their extensions, it is identified that there are shortcomings in the works reported in the consulted bibliography regarding the treatment of indeterminacy and the solution of multistage sequential decision-making problems. In this paper, two new extensions of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) for multistage sequential decision-making problems are proposed. The Multistage Sequential Triangular Neutrosophic Cognitive Map (MSTrNCM) combines neutrosophic theory with computer with words techniques to represent the map’s relationships and the inference process. This extension improves the modeling of indeterminacy and the interpretability of results. The second map, which is called Neutrosophic Cognitive Map based on linguistic Data Summarization (NCM-LDS), uses linguistic summaries to represent the map’s relations and to carry out the inference process. One of the main advantages of this extension is that it facilitates the maps construction and interpretability. Furthermore, the suggested extensions are applied as a decision-making support tool for projects evaluation using a dataset with 1011 projects records. In experimental analysis, the two proposed extensions MSTrNCM and NCM_LDS report better results than the traditional FCM and NCM_Indeterminacy reported in bibliography.