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Numerical Analysis of Ecuador's Electoral Register Integrity

Abstract:

We performed a numerical analysis of Ecuador's electoral register integrity. More precisely, we evaluated the over- and under-registration levels in that register. Serious integrity problems of the electoral register of Ecuador have been formally exposed. In 2009, the European Union electoral observation mission reported that an estimated 500,000 qualified voters were not registered. The Organization of American States electoral observation mission, deployed for the 2013 Ecuadorian elections, informed the presence of deceased citizens' entries in the electoral roll. In 2017, the civil register authorities of Ecuador acknowledged the existence of several integrity problems in the electoral register of the country. In order to evaluate the magnitude of those anomalies, we estimated the size the electoral register of Ecuador should have had in the last 4 elections, and compared that size with the size of the corresponding electoral register published by the National Electoral Council of Ecuador. Our estimations of the size of the electoral roll were based on data from Ecuador's 2010 population census and its yearly projections for the 2010-2017 period, the annual migratory flow balances for both nationals and foreigners, and official documents published by the Civil Registration, Identification, and Documentation Directorate of Ecuador. According to our analysis, there is, approximately, a 20% over-registration rate and a 27% under-registration rate in the electoral rolls of Ecuador. We propose some measurements to correct those integrity problems.