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Octopus fisheries on the Veracruz Reef system of the Gulf of Mexico: Tendencies and fluctuations

Abstract:

Octopus species are an important component of the fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico, with Octopus insularis as the most important species for the central part of the Gulf in the Veracruz Reef System. Catches of this species fluctuate year to year affecting the development of coastal communities. Thus, it is necessary to create models that allow evaluation and forecasting for better management of the fishery. Time series analysis and harmonic components were applied to a catch's series of Veracruz Mexico, and ARIMA models were implemented to identify the tendency and forecast. Results demonstrated that the catch series of octopus can fluctuate between high and low values through time. Three different periods of time were identified within the time series analysis that illustrated complete cycles of high and low catches of this species. The forecast allowed the identification of an increasing tendency in catches and identified the necessity of the inclusion of environmental variables in future analyses. These results can be used for fisheries management as a first forecast and as one approximation of increasing fishery activity on the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.