Parameter estimation for sars-cov-2 model in ecuador in presence of uncertainty

Abstract:

In this article we present the mathematical compartmental SARS-CoV-2 model, with asymptomatic patients, used by the Research Center on Mathematical Modelling (MODEMAT) to study the spread of the virus in Ecuador, as well as the developed Bayesian variational approach to estimate the model parameters, under uncertainty of the observed data. Thanks to this framework, we are able to estimate periodically the effective reproduction number and carry out short-term forecasts, using an ensemble method, of the incidence of the epidemic.

Año de publicación:

2021

Keywords:

• Bayesian approach
• Inverse problems
• SARS-COV-2
• Data assimilation
• Parameter estimation

Fuente:

scopus