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Performance evaluation and optimal decision-making for strategic air traffic management under weather uncertainty

Abstract:

Air traffic management at the strategic time frame (with 2-15 hours look-ahead time) is complicated by demand and weather uncertainties. As the Monte Carlo approach to find optimal management solutions is time-consuming, we need an effective and systematic approach to quickly 1) assess the impact of uncertain weather, and 2) design optimal management strategies under demand and weather uncertainties. In this paper, we investigate a simple strategic flow management scenario: a stream of uncertain flow enters a single weather zone subject to weather uncertainty. We provide an integrated weather-demandmanagement modeling framework to capture the uncertain dynamics of this scenario. Using this integrated modeling framework, we provide a jump-linear analytical approach to evaluate the first and second moments of weather impact, and a Probabilistic Collocation Method-based approach for the design of optimal flow management. Possible cost functions for the optimal management is discussed, and examples are shown to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approaches. © 2012 by MITRE Corporation.