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Population model describing the epidemiology of waterborne disease: A case study on the risk of Giardiasis via reclaimed water in a recreational swimming impoundment

Abstract:

An epidemiological model describing the transmission dynamics of waterborne pathogens is developed as a tool to explore corresponding health risks. A goodness-of-fit procedure, which explicitly acknowledges the uncertainties and variabilities of factors affecting infectious disease transmission, is used. The approach consists of assigning probability distributions to each parameter, sampling from these distributions for Monte Carlo simulations and using binary classification to assess the output of each simulation. Giardia is chosen as the pathogen, and swimming in an impoundment filled with reclaimed water is chosen as the exposure scenario. Three transmission scenarios are compared to analyze the relative risk of giardiasis while swimming.