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Post-earthquake Zika virus surge: Disaster and public health threat amid climatic conduciveness

Abstract:

A recent major earthquake (M7.8), coupled with appropriate climatic conditions, led to significant destruction in Ecuador. Temperature variations, which may be induced by anthropogenic climate change, are often associated with changes in rainfall, humidity and pressure. Temperature and humidity are associated with ecological modifications that may favour mosquito breeding. We hypothesized that the disruptive ecological changes triggered by the earthquake, in the context of appropriate climatic conditions, led to an upsurge in Zika virus (ZIKV) infections. Here we show that, after controlling for climatic and socioeconomic conditions, earthquake severity was associated with incident ZIKV cases. Pre-earthquake mean maximum monthly temperature and post-earthquake mean monthly pressure were negatively associated with ZIKV incidence rates. These results demonstrate the dynamics of post-disaster vector-borne disease transmission, in the context of conducive/favourable climatic conditions, which are relevant in a climate change-affected world where disasters may occur in largely populated areas.