Pbkp_redict the magnitudes of seismic events using Bayesian methods

Abstract:

The phase spectrum is an important characteristic of earthquake motion. Although amplitude and phase spectrum is essential to simulate an earthquake motion, the arrival time of a wave component with frequency and the distribution width of the group delay time are related to the duration of the time history of the wave component, its modeling is much easier than direct modeling of phase spectrum. In this paper, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) was considered to simulate the group delay time (GDT) of earthquake ground motion. A brief review of probabilistic Bayesian methods (Monte Carlos Sequential Methods) to handle earthquake data is presented. A methodology based on recursive algorithms is proposed that allows estimating and pbkp_redict the magnitudes of seismic events from the time, location and magnitude of the event past. To approximate the solution of the stochastic differential equation, the Euler-Maruyama and Milstein structures were defined. New approaches for collective analysis of the data and an engineering model for the source are discussed with a few numerical results.

Año de publicación:

2020

Keywords:

• Stochastic differential equation
• Structure of Euler-Maruyama
• Monte Carlos sequential methods
• Structure of Milstein
• Seismic event

Fuente:

scopus