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Pbkp_redicting hybridisation as a consequence of climate change in damselflies

Abstract:

Climate change is a key stressor for species. Two major consequences of climate-induced range shifts are the formation of new areas of geographic overlap (i.e. sympatry) and an increased probability of hybridisation in the de novo created contact zones. One method to effectively quantify the potential of hybridisation is to integrate ecological niche modelling and the propensity to hybridisation based on genetic divergence. In this paper, we have applied this methodology to pbkp_redict hybridisation outcomes following different scenarios of climate change in 30 species of Argia damselflies. We (i) investigated how climate change may affect species’ distributions; (ii) quantified if changed distributions generate new areas of sympatry between species; (iii) calculated the propensity to hybridise based on genetic divergence between species; and (iv) integrated these data to pbkp_redict the future potential of species to hybridise. We found that the distribution of 29 of the 30 species was affected by a change in climate which led to a general increase in sympatric overlap among species. The degree of genetic divergence among the 108 species’ combinations ranged from 0.06% to 0.36%. Based on the sympatric overlap and genetic divergence, it can be pbkp_redicted that 97 of the species pairs are likely to hybridise in the future. Our results are useful to forecast how highly diverse and closely related groups, such as Argia damselflies, may respond to a change in climate and how this can impact the potential of species mixing under a scenario of increased global warming.