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Pbkp_rediction of concentrations of PM<inf>2.5</inf> in downtown Quito using the chaos theory

Abstract:

Pollution with particular material called PM2.5, is made up of particles of lower or equal aerodynamic diameter to 2.5 microns, that are in the atmosphere, penetrate the respiratory system and be deposited in the pulmonary alveoli and even reach the bloodstream. The main objective of this article is to pbkp_redict the PM2.5 concentration levels in Quito's historic downtown located in Ecuador (0°13′12.46″ S, 78°30′36.97″ O, height 2830 m) using the chaos theory, as an alternative to the traditional methods, which will help the prevention of the effects caused by the mentioned pollutant. Historical data of PM2.5 (μg/m3) concentrations were collected, between 2005-2016, registered by the Metropolitan Atmospheric Monitoring Network of Quito. Data series were created per hour, 24-hour and monthly averages. Prior to pbkp_redictability analysis, the data series, were subjected to noise reduction to then evaluate various parameters that is used in chaos theory, how is the delay time, the embedding dimension and the Lyapunov's coefficients. It was found that the series of data per hour and averages in 24 hours, have a chaotic behavior, except the series of data of the monthly averages. The results of the hypothesis tests of the pbkp_redictions for 24 hours, 7 days and 6 months, determine that there is no significant difference between the real and pbkp_redicted data at 95 percent reliability, with an error of the square root of the mean that goes between 6.27 and 3.09 (μg / m3).