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Relation between design floods based on daily maxima and daily means: use of the Peak Over Threshold approach in the Upper Nysa Kłodzka Basin (SW Poland)

Abstract:

The estimation of flood quantiles is crucial in the assessment of the magnitude and frequency of floods. We carried out a comparative analysis of design discharges estimated from both daily maximum flows and daily mean flows for four mountainous catchments located in the Upper Nysa Kłodzka river basin (SW Poland). After separation of baseflow, split of the riverflow time series in independent events, and selection of the Peak Over Threshold sample, the parameters of the Generalized Pareto Distribution were estimated using the Hill statistic, after bias correction, and considering asymptotic properties. The comparison was performed for various return periods, where the long return periods were of main concern. The jack-knife approach was used to assess the uncertainty of the pbkp_redicted flood quantiles, and comparison was made with an alternative approach based on annual maxima. We found a meaningful level of differences between daily maximum and mean design discharges and between the rate of change of flood magnitude for which the level (i) stabilized with increasing return period, (ii) decreased downstream, and (iii) was large for catchments susceptible to flooding and with high elevation change. Results are useful in practice when daily maximum discharge is not routinely recorded.