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Resilience Assessment in Electric Power Systems Against Volcanic Ash

Abstract:

Electric power systems (EPS) are facing challenges worldwide due to the increased occurrence of high-impact, low-probability (HILP) events, such as natural hazards. In this context, the concept of resilience has been considered in several studies. However, few studies have addressed the assessment of EPS resilience against volcanic eruptions with a focus on electrical structure damage. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the impact of ash deposits on the EPS. The methodology uses data sampling from historical ash deposit events to obtain probability density functions to then apply a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) that can characterize the event and assess its impact on the electrical infrastructure through vulnerability curves. In addition, a DC optimal power flow model (DC-OPF) under contingencies was implemented to quantify different resilience metrics in terms of energy supply capacity, operation, and the infrastructure of the power system. The proposed methodology was applied to the Ecuadorian National Interconnected System (NIS) to assess the impact of an eruption of the Cotopaxi volcano. The results show our methodological framework evaluates resilience in terms of operation and infrastructure in EPS against the ash deposit, allowing mitigation plans to be better formulated.