Risk of drought based on social perception in the province of Carchi, Ecuador


Abstract:

This study aimed to determine the levels of drought risk in vulnerable areas of the Carchi Province, Ecuador; based on the social perception of its threat and climate analysis. The study area has an area of 1,635.6 km2, distributed in the sub-basins of the Carchi, Apaquí and El Ángel rivers, and their micro-basins, in which the main agricultural activity and the highest population concentration are found. For the purposes of this work, social perception of risk is understood as the ability of people to form impressions and make inferences about the natural and anthropic threats that they recur. The study and analysis procedure of the information collected in the aforementioned area consisted of four phases: 1. Application of a survey model to a random and non-probabilistic sample of 120 producers settled in the study area; 2. Determination of the annual average values of rainfall; temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the 49 microbasins; 3. Calculation of the aridity index and 4. Determination of drought risk levels. The results obtained allowed us to determine, in terms of the social perception of the study area, that 52% of people considered drought as the greatest threat of natural disaster; Potatoes, beans and corn being the most affected crops. It is pertinent to highlight that the risk of drought rather than an agroclimatic event, whose direct effect is the reduction of crop yields, must be visualized from a more integrated perspective; that is to say, reflecting that the consequences of natural disasters are not independent of social systems. It is concluded that social perception is a criterion of high value when estimating, in this case, the risk of drought.

Año de publicación:

2019

Keywords:

  • CARCHI
  • Vulnerability and socio-environmental risks
  • Social perception
  • Climate Change
  • ECUADOR
  • Aridity index

Fuente:

scopusscopus

Tipo de documento:

Article

Estado:

Acceso restringido

Áreas de conocimiento:

  • Geografía
  • Socioeconomía

Áreas temáticas:

  • Otros problemas y servicios sociales
  • Factores que afectan al comportamiento social
  • Geología, hidrología, meteorología