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Scenarios of Future Amazonian Landscapes: Econometric and Dynamic Simulation Models

Abstract:

This chapter addresses two broad classes of models frequently used in the land use/land cover change (LULCC) literature, namely, econometric and dynamic simulation approaches. We discuss both in light of analyses of LULCC in the Amazon, highlighting contributions of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in the Amazon program. We first discuss LULCC scenarios, a key approach to evaluating future LULCC in the presence of uncertainty that requires input from models. The bulk of the chapter then pursues a description of the basic elements of econometric and simulation models for LULCC scenario development, where we highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each modeling approach. We conclude by returning to issues involved in the process of scenario development, highlighting opportunities for engaging stakeholders with models for the sake of improving LULCC outcomes.