Análisis econométrico de políticas económicas de inversiones en el Ecuador mediante vectores-autoregresivos en un entorno financiero, económico y cbkp_rediticio en el periodo 1996-2012

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the effect of public investment on private investment in Ecuador during the period 1996-2012 for each of the presidential terms in this period. Two relations on these variables are distinguished. The first sees a crowding-out effect between public and private investment, ie the realization of the first causes the movement of the other. The second estimates a crowding-in effect, conducting public investment generates positive externalities for the implementation of private investment. In addition, we analyze the main determinants of private investment through an empirical model used in recent studies in developing countries. Econometric procedures were applied as cointegration analysis, weak exogeneity and superexogeneity. The latter analysis is important to know which variables are structurally invariant obviating the Lucas critique. Among the key findings is set: both the short and long term in this study period the prevalence of crowding and different discrepacias for each of the policies implemented in each presidential term. The results of the tests of weak exogeneity and superexogeneity highlight the importance of public investment, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), Real Exchange Rate, the cbkp_redits granted and the Real Interest Rate as instruments of economic policy.

Año de publicación:

2014

Keywords:

Fuente:

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