Regresar

Seismic Resilience Assessment in Electric Power Systems

Abstract:

Reliability analysis has been historically focused on the so-called cbkp_redible outages, typically in the form of N-1 or N-2 faults, ignoring the occurrence of high impact and low probability (HILP) events due to natural hazards. These events can represent a real threat to critical infrastructure, including electric power systems. In the context of climate change, where HILP events are expected to become more and more frequent and intense, it is paramount to assess these risks and thus the performance of electrical systems under such HILP events. In this paper, we assess these risks by using resilience-oriented metrics on an illustrative 3-bus electricity network, considering multiple damage states of its components due to earthquakes. To do so, we use the FLEP metric system proposed by the University of Manchester that assesses various characteristics (power not supplied right after the event occurs, rate of recovery, etc.) of a power system exposed to HILP events. These metrics are calculated within a novel Monte Carlo simulation tool that takes consideration of the stochastic nature of HILP events and their impacts on the electricity infrastructure. We argue that these metrics are paramount to understand the levels of risks to which power systems are exposed. This is the first step to, later on, optimize and improve the performance of power systems by enhancing operation and infrastructure.