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Sensitivity analysis in the scenario method: A multi-objective approach

Abstract:

Technology foresight deals with the necessity of anticipating the future to better adapt to new situations regarding innovations that directly affect business world. One widely spread methodology in technology foresight is Godet's Scenario Method, which includes a module (MICMAC) performing the so-called structural analysis. The goal of the structural analysis is to identify the most important variables in a system. To this end, it makes use of an influence matrix that describes the relations between the variables. This information is usually given by experts based on their own knowledge and experience. However, some of the information of the influence matrix may contain errors due to the subjective nature of the criteria and opinions of the experts. Here we propose a new analysis that follows a multi-objective approach and allows to measure the sensibility of the model versus possible errors at the input. The well-known NSGA-II algorithm has been used as a solver. The results are encouraging and deserve further investigation. © 2011 IEEE.