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Simulation of Vehicle Transit During an Eventual Eruption of the Cotopaxi Volcano in the Valle de los Chillos, Central Ecuador

Abstract:

The short reaction times before the arrival of volcanic mud flows (lahars) after a sudden eruption of the Cotopaxi volcano, together with the increase of the population and the car park convert a vehicular agglomeration prior a sudden evacuation an eminent problem. This research proposes a simulation of vehicular traffic in the Chillos Valley in the Inter-Andean Valley of central Ecuador in the event of an eventual eruption through the application of free software geoinformatics tools. A vehicle capacity and classification around the study area has been conducted by selecting the period that presents a greater intensity of traffic as input for the simulation. Hereby two models of the road mesh have been generated, of which one presents the normal conditions of the roads while for the other, the nearby backflow. For the simulation, the traffic allocation zones were established and the Origin-Destination matrices have been elaborated. The optimal routes have been chosen for each case and the simulation time has been established based on the possible arrival times of the lahars. The results yield a critical scenario for the normal model, and a notable improvement over the counterflow model.