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Small but visible: Pbkp_redicting rare bryophyte distribution and richness patterns using remote sensing-based ensembles of small models

Abstract:

In Canadian boreal forests, bryophytes represent an essential component of biodiversity and play a significant role in ecosystem functioning. Despite their ecological importance and sensitivity to disturbances, bryophytes are overlooked in conservation strategies due to knowledge gaps on their distribution, which is known as the Wallacean shortfall. Rare species deserve priority attention in conservation as they are at a high risk of extinction. This study aims to elaborate pbkp_redictive models of rare bryophyte species in Canadian boreal forests using remote sensing-derived pbkp_redictors in an Ensemble of Small Models (ESMs) framework. We hypothesize that high ESMs-based pbkp_rediction accuracy can be achieved for rare bryophyte species despite their low number of occurrences. We also assess if there is a spatial correspondence between rare and overall bryophyte richness patterns. The study area is located in western Quebec and covers 72,292 km2. We selected 52 bryophyte species with <30 occurrences from a presence-only database (214 species, 389 plots in total). ESMs were built from Random Forest and Maxent techniques using remote sensing-derived pbkp_redictors related to topography and vegetation. Lee’s L statistic was used to assess and map the spatial relationship between rare and overall bryophyte richness patterns. ESMs yielded poor to excellent pbkp_rediction accuracy (AUC > 0.5) for 73% of the modeled species, with AUC values > 0.8 for 19 species, which confirmed our hypothesis. In fact, ESMs provided better pbkp_redictions for the rarest bryophytes. Likewise, our study revealed a spatial concordance between rare and overall bryophyte richness patterns in different regions of the study area, which have important implications for conservation planning. This study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing for assessing and making pbkp_redictions on inconspicuous and rare species across the landscape and lays the basis for the eventual inclusion of bryophytes into sustainable development planning.