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Statistical modeling, parameter estimation and measurement planning for PV degradation

Abstract:

Photovoltaics (PV) degradation is a key consideration during PV performance evaluation. Accurately pbkp_redicting power delivery over the course of lifetime of PV is vital to manufacturers and system owners. With many systems exceeding 20 years of operation worldwide, degradation rates have been reported abundantly in the recent years. PV degradation is a complex function of a variety of factors, including but not limited to climate, manufacturer, technology and installation skill. As a result, it is difficult to determine degradation rate by analytical modeling; it has to be measured. As one set of degradationmeasurements based on a single sample cannot represent the population nor be used to estimate the true degradation of a particular PV technology, repeated measures through multiple samples are essential. In this chapter, linear mixed effects model (LMM) is introduced to analyze longitudinal degradation data. The framework herein introduced aims to address three issues: 1) how to model the difference in degradation observed in PV modules/systems of a same technology that are installed at a shared location; 2) how to estimate the degradation rate and quantiles based on the data, and 3) how to effectively and efficiently plan degradation measurements.