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A conceptual lumped model for pbkp_redicting the total monthly runoff.

Abstract:

Describes a conceptual lumped modelling approach for simulating the total runoff using as input only the observed average monthly precipitation. The water balance model is developed considering a conceptual soil storage element which determines the generation of excess water. This generated excess water is routed through the watershed by using a conversion sub-system, which transforms the net rainfall into river flow at the outlet of the watershed. Four different versions of the conversion subsystem are worked out allowing an objective evaluation and comparison. An interactive approximation of the objective function leads to the identification of the parameters. The robust polytope algorithm is used as an optimization procedure. For the identification of the model parameters a ten year continuous time series is used. Practical benefits from the model require a validation stage in the modelling activity. A five year data set, immediately following the identification stage, was used for this purpose. (A)