Regresar

The economic evaluation and significance of an early relocation versus complete destruction by a potential Tsunami of a coastal city in Ecuador

Abstract:

The coastal part of continental Ecuador is highly vulnerable for tsunami hazards as shown in the past two centuries. In order to avoid future devastating destructions in a given part in the coastline, we have estimated the economic effects of a potential future tsunami for one small Pacific town in Ecuador in order to analyze such potential cost of damages and compare it with a proposed resettlement value of the entire town. In past, most of the known resettlement projects have been realized as result of a natural disaster or a planning infrastructure such as hydro-electrical plants. Yet, in this study, we have considered to propose to policy makers and other authorities to take into account that a resettlement plan should be realized prior an impact by one the most deadly natural hazard. The results include four different scenarios of economic losses as a result of a potential tsunami, using human losses as the only variable that vary. Potential economic losses vary from 441 US$ up to 620 US$ millions, when compared to a potential resettlement and associated costs based on the four scenarios. The B/C ratio is favorable to town resettlement as Government’s preventing policy favoring an intelligent reduction and prevention of vulnerability and loss of human life.