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The short-term response of the hispanic noncitizen population to anti-illegal immigration legislation: The case of Arizona SB 1070

Abstract:

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the short-term effect of the Arizona Immigration Law of 2010 (SB 1070) on the noncitizen Hispanic state population. Design/methodology/approach – To get a consistent estimate of this effect, a synthetic control method has been used to calculate a suitable counterfactual. Findings – Results indicate that this bill produced a statistically significant short-term reduction in the proportion of noncitizen Hispanics in Arizona between 10 and 15 per cent. However, the evidence suggests that this effect vanishes after a few months. Originality/value – These findings are consistent with previous evidence of the high mobility of the undocumented population in the US, and contribute to the understanding of the effects of federal and state-level immigration legislation.