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Trend and seasonality assessment for monthly precipitation in Venezuela

Abstract:

This paper analyzes data from 113 Venezuelan monthly precipitation stations for recent years. The data come from the climatic network from the Venezuelan Guayana Coorporation- Caroni Electrification (CVG-EDELCA), the Venezuelan Air Force (FAV), and the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN). An homogeneity test is carried out by using Alexandersson's test (Alexandersson 1986) to detect locations with important changes in the mean, which are not part of the natural climate variability. Linear models with a trend component, a seasonal component and autoregressive errors are fitted by using Generalized Least Squares. Different models are compared to determine whether the trend component should be included within the model, as well as the seasonal component with one or two harmonics, depending on whether the precipitation presents a single or two modes along the year. The Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) is used for model selection. The estimated trend values and the significance of the trend component are spatially represented. It is found that in the northern coastal region and most of the Andean region precipitation trends are negative. On the contrary, southeast of Bolívar state presents a positive trend. However, the model trend component is not significant for most locations. Moreover, the seasonal pattern is best represented with a model with two harmonics, given the seasonal characteristics of the analyzed locations.